Indonesia Daily Focus December 8, 2020

 

Weekly commodity alert – Mostly glad tidings

We predict that the US’ daily oil production for December 4 would be higher, relative to the preceding week. Meanwhile, we predict that the US’ oil refinery input for December 4 would be higher that last week’s figure. We think that global coal prices would be trading higher this week, given the higher estimate for China’s November coal (lignite) import. In our view, Adaro Energy (ADRO), Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG), Bukit Asam (PTBA), and other coal-related stocks would be attractive this week. 

We think that global nickel prices would be attractive this week, provided some positive catalysts. Meanwhile, we think that global tin prices would be trading on both sides of the market this week, instead, due to two-sided catalysts. Overall, we predict that global gold prices would be trading higher this week, given the estimate for the US’ weakening purchasing power. In our view, Aneka Tambang (ANTM), Vale Indonesia (INCO), Merdeka Copper Gold (MDKA), and other nickel-related and gold-related stocks would be attractive this week.

According to the latest news, an expert in the CPO industry expects that global CPO prices would potentially reach MYR4,000/tonne (USD982/tonne) in January based on his supply-demand analysis. We note that Indonesia, as the biggest global CPO producer, increased CPO export levy to USD180/tonne, from USD55/tonne, to be effective on December 10. Overall, we think that global CPO prices will be trading on muted mix this week, given two-sided catalysts.

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