Indonesia Daily Focus December 15, 2020
Weekly commodity alert – Opting for China-related commodity
We
predict that the US’ daily oil production for December 11 would be
higher, relative to the preceding week. Meanwhile, we predict that the
US’ oil refinery input for December 11 would be higher that last week’s
figure. Given the higher estimate for China’s November industrial
production growth, we believe that China’s energy consumption would
remain solid. In our view, Adaro Energy (ADRO), Indo Tambangraya Megah
(ITMG), Bukit Asam (PTBA), and other coal-related stocks would be
attractive this week.
We
think both of global nickel and tin prices would be attractive this
week, given some positive catalysts. Meanwhile, we think that global
gold prices would be less attractive this week, given the estimated
improvement in the US’ purchasing power. In our view, Aneka Tambang
(ANTM), Vale Indonesia (INCO), Timah (TINS), and other nickel-related
and tin-related stocks would be attractive this week.
We
note that Malaysia’s November CPO production declined to 1.5mn tonnes
(-13.5% MoM; -3.0% YoY). Thus, it would be an upside risk to global CPO
prices for this week. Meanwhile, we note that Malaysia’s November CPO
export dropped to 1.3mn tonnes (-22.2% MoM; -7.3% YoY). Thus, it would
pose a downside risk to global CPO prices for this week. Overall, we
think that global CPO prices will be trading on both ways this week,
given two-sided catalysts.
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