Indonesia Daily Focus December 14, 2020
Macro Preview - November’s international trade: Expecting good news on exports
Expecting exports to improve by 4.5% YoY
Statistics
Indonesia is scheduled to announce international trade figures for the
month of November on Tuesday (December 15). We foresee exports to record
a YoY expansion of 4.5% in November. Meanwhile, we expect imports to
drop by 25% YoY, which will then translate into a trade balance surplus
of US$3.07bn.
Global economic recovery continues
We
expect Indonesia’s exports to be positive in YoY terms in November
since the global economy continues to recover; in November,
manufacturing PMI in almost all of Indonesia’s key export markets
recorded an expansion, led by the US at 56.7.
Nevertheless,
as the economic recovery in most key export markets remained relatively
soft and producers from all over the world seemed to stay conservative
in stacking up input and final goods inventories, we expect the
improvement in exports in YoY terms to be limited.
Imports should stay in negative territory
We
expect that imports of raw materials, which represent 74% of
Indonesia’s total imports, will keep recording deep YoY contraction in
November; in October, raw material imports fell by 27.4% YoY. On the
other side, the significant appreciation of Rupiah throughout November
should help ease the pressures on imports.
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