Indonesia Daily Focus December 1, 2020
Weekly commodity alert – Moving on to a carbon week
We
predict that the US’ daily oil production for November 27 would be
higher, relative to the preceding week. Meanwhile, we predict that the
US’ oil refinery input for November 27 would be higher that last week’s
figure. According to the latest news, China has announced its commitment
to purchase 200.0mn tonnes of coal from Indonesia for next year. In
2019, Indonesia was exporting 137.6mn tonnes of thermal coal to China.
In our view, Adaro Energy (ADRO), Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG), Bukit
Asam (PTBA), and other coal-related stocks would be attractive this
week.
Overall,
we think that global nickel prices would be trading on both sides of
the market this week, provided two-sided catalysts. We also think that
global tin prices will be in the sameboat as global nickel prices this
week. We predict that global gold prices would be trading lower this
week, given the estimate for the US’ strengthening purchasing power.
We
think that Malaysia’s November 1-30 CPO export would be lower than that
of the previous period as Malaysia’s November 1-25 CPO export fell by
18.7% MoM to 1.1mn tonnes. We note that India as the largest of global
CPO consumer has lowered palm oil duty import to 27.5%, from 37.5%.
Thus, it would be an upside risk to global CPO prices in the short term.
Overall, we think that global CPO prices will be trading on muted mix
this week, given two-sided catalysts.
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