Indonesia Daily Focus December 1, 2020

 

Weekly commodity alert – Moving on to a carbon week

We predict that the US’ daily oil production for November 27 would be higher, relative to the preceding week. Meanwhile, we predict that the US’ oil refinery input for November 27 would be higher that last week’s figure. According to the latest news, China has announced its commitment to purchase 200.0mn tonnes of coal from Indonesia for next year. In 2019, Indonesia was exporting 137.6mn tonnes of thermal coal to China. In our view, Adaro Energy (ADRO), Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG), Bukit Asam (PTBA), and other coal-related stocks would be attractive this week.
 
Overall, we think that global nickel prices would be trading on both sides of the market this week, provided two-sided catalysts. We also think that global tin prices will be in the sameboat as global nickel prices this week. We predict that global gold prices would be trading lower this week, given the estimate for the US’ strengthening purchasing power.

We think that Malaysia’s November 1-30 CPO export would be lower than that of the previous period as Malaysia’s November 1-25 CPO export fell by 18.7% MoM to 1.1mn tonnes. We note that India as the largest of global CPO consumer has lowered palm oil duty import to 27.5%, from 37.5%. Thus, it would be an upside risk to global CPO prices in the short term. Overall, we think that global CPO prices will be trading on muted mix this week, given two-sided catalysts.

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