Indonesia Daily Focus November 24, 2020
Weekly commodity alert – Putting faith in coal, nickel, and tin
We
predict that the US’ daily oil production for November 20 would be
higher, relative to the preceding week. Meanwhile, we predict that the
US’ oil refinery input for November 20 would be higher that last week’s
figure. We think that global coal prices would be trading higher this
week, given the solid number of China’s electricity consumption growth
for October. In our view, Adaro Energy (ADRO), Indo Tambangraya Megah
(ITMG), and other coal-related stocks would be attractive this week.
We
think that both global nickel and tin prices will be trading higher,
given the upside risks coming from both the supply and demand side. We
think that global gold prices will potentially be trading both ways. In
our view, Aneka Tambang (ANTM), Vale Indonesia (INCO), Timah (TINS), and
other nickel- and tin-related stocks would be attractive this week.
We
note that Malaysia’s November 1 – 20 CPO export survey results record a
decrease of 16.2% MoM to 1.1mn tonnes, according to AmSPec Agri’s
survey report. Thus, we think that it would be a downside risk to global
CPO prices for this week. According to the latest news, we note that
Indonesia will likely put on hold its plan to use B40 biodiesel next
year, as the government has to provide a larger stimulus for the
biodiesel program due to rising palm oil prices. Overall, we think that
global CPO prices will be trading on muted mix this week, given the lack
of positive catalysts.
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